Deutsche Bank Analysts on Apple 3D Sensing Plans

Deutsche Bank analysis of active alignment (AA) systems supplier ASM Pacific Technology (ASMPT) has interesting info on 3D sensing adoption in future iPhones and dual cameras in future Samsung phones:

"We expect ASMPT’s AA machine sales to grow only 10% YoY in 2018 and stay flat YoY in 2019, after 56% YoY growth in 2017 (Figure 8). Most camera module makers should upgrade their AA machines in 2017. Notably, we believe Apple will not implement 3D sensing for 4.7” and 5.5” iPhones in 2018. This means Apple supply chain will not procure new AA machines for 3D sensing from ASMPT in 2018 (i.e., ASMPT is benefiting from Apple’s adoption of 3D sensing for 5.8” OLED iPhone in 2017).

We estimate camera module makers could upgrade their AA machines every three years due to rapid specs migration in dual cameras for smartphones. This is shorter than the normal duration of five to six years for a CIS (CMOS image sensor) machine. However, ASMPT’s AA business could still see a sales growth deceleration in 2018/19, even assuming a shorter duration of AA machines."